An exciting prospect: Upcoming Climate conferences

About COP23 and COP24’s locations and what I think about it. Also, looking back at COP22 and forward at a big climate fight in 2018.

So the COP22 Marrakech Climate conference is over, and I haven’t been there. Sure, it would have been interesting reporting the progress or lack thereof one after my big Paris expedition. Also, meeting some of the many nice people, especially from the PlaceToB project should have made me go to Morocco.

Still, I had decided to skip the 2016 conference, which – unlike the COP21 – wasn’t expected to bring great changes. I speculated that COP23, which should normally take place in Asia, might be hosted by China. I planned to go there. First because of the importance of the country in climate politics. Second, because I have a thing with China and know the language reasonably well to get along. I think that would have made for some more good reporting.

Climate leadership: From the USA to China

It turns out, the COP23 won’t take place in China – as a matter of fact, nobody was volunteering to host it. Now I guess the Chinese government was surprised – as we all were – by Donald Trump winning the presidential election. It has become clear that the kind of partial leadership the US took in climate politics will be given up and that there’s room for new countries to draw prestige from being in the frontline of the fight against global warming.

China’s certainly the most interested in this role – and had Trump been elected a month earlier, I bet they would have seriously considered to host the Climate conference in 2017. Bad luck for them… and for me.

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Climate conferences: A dim future? (Bonn – Wikipedia / Tohma / CC BY-SA 4.0)

 

Finally, I learned that the COP23 would take place at an enclave of the Fiji Islands, namely Bonn-by-the-Sea. Seriously, Fiji as an Asian country volunteered to preside the Conference whereas it will take place in Germany’s former capital, some 150 kilometers from Luxembourg. That’s goood for me, and I’ll try my best to be there.

I’ve wanted to visit Bonn for some time. It has a kind of United Nations District, with several environmental institutions, notably the UNFCCC secretariat. Also,there’s the Museum Mile, with the Bundeskunsthalle (art) and the Haus für Geschichte (history). Last but not least, there’s the Beethovenhaus.

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Beethoven (Joseph Karl Stieler / Beethoven-Haus Bonn / PD)

I hope the people from PlaceToB plan to set up a project for that conference. As I don’t live too far away and I’m bilingual in German and French, I might be of help with the preparations and the communication in Bonn.

COPs, next stops: Beethoven, Germany, then Chopin, Poland

Beethoven is one of my favorite composers, but I’m also a big fan of Slavic music. So when I hear Poland, I think of Fryderyk Chopin, and also of Henryk Wieniawski. The reason I mention this is, the government in Warsaw has volunteered to host the COP24. As far as I understand, this is a proposal, not yet a decision.

Normally the 2018 Conference should take place in Eastern Europe, but because the preceding conference is already located in Europe, this might be changed. Should it take place in Poland, I think Wroclaw (German name: Breslau) might be chosen (after 2008 in Poznan and 2013 in Warsaw) – the city has been the European Capital of Culture 2016.

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Chopin (Maria Wodzinska / National museum Warsaw / PD)

Anyway, while the COP23 will be transitional, the COP24 will be really important and conflictual. 2018 will be the beginning of the Facilitative dialogue, which is meant to bring the countries commitments in line with what is needed to remain below the 1.5 degree target. How much more needs to be done will be more clear thanks to an IPCC report to be published that year.

COP24 might see a big fight, and may represent the last stand if humanity is to avoid a massive climate change that may cause anything from an unprecedented economical crisis up to the extinction of the human species.

An all-important climate conference at a „climate dunce’s“ place

Should the Climate conferences take place in Bonn and somewhere in Poland in succession, that would symbolize a core problem of the international climate policy: There are highly motivated countries like Fiji and Germany, but there are others that keep a hidden agenda, like Poland. The Eastern European country depends on coal for its energy production and for economical and social reasons tries to keep mining as long as possible.

Clearly, organizing the all-important COP24 at a „climate dunce’s“ place will make for interesting discussions. And although Poland is some 1000 kilometers from Luxembourg, it’s still quite close – I just have to be there!

 

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Wiedersehen mit Welzer

Eine düstere Zukunft hatte Harald Welzer der Menschheit bereits 2008 in einem Buch vorausgesagt – aufgrund der nicht nachhaltigen Wirtschaftsweise. 2014 wollte ich im Vorfeld der Mouvement-Podiumsdiskussion wissen, ob sich seine Einschätzung geändert habe.

Welzer zum Warmlesen

Welzer damals in der woxx: “Sie kann sich nicht geändert haben, weil sich die CO2-Emissionen und das Wachstum in die gleiche Richtung weiterentwickelt haben.”
Das dürfte auch heute noch gelten. Dennoch darf man gespannt sein, wie die Diskussion zwischen Harald Welzer und Reinhard Loske am kommenden Dienstag 8. November verläuft (also ein paar Attentate, ein paar Millionen Arbeitslose, ein Freihandelsabkommen und 32 einhalb Monate  später).
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Podiumsdiskussion am 27.2.2014, Welzer gedankenversunken rechts vorne.

Die Podiumsdiskussion ist der – alternative – Beitrag des Mouvement écologique zur Luxemburgischen Zukunftsdiskussion, die vom Mainstream ab kommender Woche rund um die Landesplanung beginnt, und in einer Hohemesse mit Jeremy Rifkin am 14. November gipfelt.
Wie erbarmungslos der Berufsprovokateur Welzer mit dem Berufsoptimisten Rifkin umspringt, kann man unter “Was war noch mal Kapitalismus?” nachlesen.

Rifkin und die Große Transition

Ich denke, dass Rifkin sowohl von der Ausrichtung wie von den Ideen her durchaus Interessantes zur Großen Transition beizutragen hat. Umso wichtiger ist es mir, die Kritik von Welzer und Loske zu hören, um die Visionen Rifkins zu hinterfragen – und vor allem die “Strategie”, die die Luxemburgische Regierung und die Unternehmer daraus ableiten wollen.